IPhone Ultra Foldable May Ship Only 500K Units in Q3 2026

Apple’s first foldable iPhone is shaping up to be one of the harder devices to actually buy at launch. Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo projects that foldable iPhone shipments in the second half of 2026 will reach only 7 to 8 million units, with third-quarter shipments sitting between 500,000 and 1 million. For comparison, the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max are each expected to ship 20 to 22 million units in the same quarter.

The more telling parallel Kuo draws is to the iPhone X. Apple announced that phone in September 2017 but didn’t open pre-orders until late October and didn’t start sales until November, because manufacturing challenges constrained early production. Kuo believes the foldable, widely rumored as the iPhone Ultra, may follow the same pattern.

What buyers are actually looking at

The device itself is expected to carry a 5.5-inch outside display and a 7.8-inch inside display, measuring under 5mm thick when unfolded. The price is expected to land between $2,300 and $2,500. Those specs put it in a category with no real Apple precedent, which partly explains why Apple’s production forecast for this device has been a moving target among analysts.

Tight supply at that price point creates a predictable secondary market problem. Kuo expects resale prices to run 50% to 100% above Apple’s retail price during the launch window, with delivery estimates potentially stretching to 4 to 6 weeks or longer through December.

Apple has navigated constrained launches before, though the stakes here are different. The current Mac Studio already has delivery estimates stretching into October for some configurations, a reminder that Apple’s supply chain doesn’t always keep pace with demand even on established product lines. By early 2027, Kuo believes production will have improved enough to give Apple a clearer read on actual demand once launch excitement fades.